Egypt: Trapped and Without Direction
Egypt is back to the polls again, this time not to find their lawmakers, but a president to replace, after fifteen months, President Mubarak Hozni.
More than 50 million people are eligible to vote, and it will most likely go to a second round, since none of the 12 candidates is shown as a clear favorite to reach 50 percent plus one required.
Analysts and Western media show the polls as the sweetest fruit of the "Egyptian Arab Spring," a process with popular origin and subsequently kidnapped by the elites and power groups to make it a winter.
That is the context in which this event takes place: the frustration of unfulfilled promises, an economy still to be raised, the same social problems and a precarious political system, incapable of building a new and better Egypt. Just one example: Egypt does not have a constitution, that is, the next president does not know at this point the level of power he will have in the country.
It's true ... maybe these could be the freest elections in years, but no one guarantees full transparency, unlike Mubarak’s times, when everyone knew in advance the fraudulent result. This election seems to be a springboard to a more acute political crisis.
The truth is that the country is confused, an example are the candidates: out of the four with more possibilities, two candidates of radical Islam, the religious and political power that conquered the parliament and now runs out of steam within society, the other two candidates were high government officials of Mubarak’s government.
Who are these last two characters? Shafiq Ahmed, Prime Minister with Hosni Mubarak and Amro Musa, former foreign minister of the same government. But how can it be possible that the people who drove a despotic government are voting today in part on the return of some of its leading figures? Insecurity and economic crisis are the keys. Millions dream of a past, more corrupt and dictatorial, but with safer streets. In the case of Musa, the candidate has won the hearts of the farmers by promising better credits through an agricultural bank. For millions of Egyptians, democracy is now more important than the insecurity and not the lack of food.
The next president will face a super-army with 30 percent of the GDP in its hands, reluctant to lose their large space in making decisions. He will have to save an economy in ruins, for which he will have to comply with the conditions of international financial organizations.
However, a detail, if an ex-supporter of Mubarak wins, who will bring the greatest political benefits? Undoubtedly. the U.S that will see that the presidency of Egypt is a continuation of their ancient alliance. The favorite, Amr Moussa, was secretary of the Arab League which facilitated the invasion of Libya.